Ether’s options market flows appear more bullish than ever, with the cryptocurrency eyeing the psychological level of $5,000.
Data tracked by Swiss-based analytics firm Laevitas shows there are currently 1.02 million call option contracts ($4.8 billion) open on the Deribit exchange – perhaps a record figure and twice more than the put option tally of 426,950 ($2 billion).
The big gap reflects top side bias. “[That’s] pretty bullish positioning,” Amber Group said in a Telegram chat. “skew is favouring topside as well.” Traders buy call options to bet on price increases and seek downside protection via puts when anticipating a correction.
Both short-term and longer duration calls are drawing higher prices than puts at press time, as evident from the negative one-week, one-, three- and six-month put-call skews. Put-call skews measure the cost of puts relative to calls.
As seen below, the majority of open interest is concentrated in the so-called out-of-the-money or higher strike call options. On Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange by volume and open interest, one ether options contract represents 1 ETH.
Call options at $5,000, $10,000, and $15,000 account for nearly 300,000 in open positions.
According to QCP Capital, increased buying in the $15,000 call has been driven by last month’s high conviction recommendation by Real Vision Founder Raoul Pal.
“On Deribit, you can buy the March 2022 [expiry] $15,000 calls for around $167 [premium paid to purchase call],” Pal said in a note to clients, according to QCP Capital’s Telegram broadcast dated Oct. 28.
Pal called the trade a lottery ticket, meaning the maximum loss a buyer would suffer is limited to the extent of the premium paid for a single contract, i.e., $167. At the same time, profit can be huge if ether rallies to $15,000 or more.
“If it goes to $20,000, you make 28x. If it goes to $40,000, you make 85x,” Pal said.
Traders have been buying cheap out-of-the-money call options since the first quarter in a bid to make millions on a relatively small investment.
Ether, the native token of Ethereum’s blockchain, is currently trading at record highs near $4,800, representing a 550% year-to-date gain versus bitcoin’s 134% rally.
Investors have been snapping up ether in recent weeks on expectations that U.S. regulators would approve an ETH futures-based exchange-traded fund (ETF).
“Our flow report again shows a stronger bid [bullish] side bias for ETH (55.6% buying) over BTC (51.7% buying),” Adam Farthing, chief risk officer at crypto liquidity provider and over-the-counter trader B2C2 Japan, said in a weekly note published Monday.