Bitcoin (BTC) increased significantly on Sept 30, creating a large bullish candlestick and reaching the $44,000 resistance area.
It’s also approaching the resistance line of a parallel channel and is in the process of making yet another breakout attempt.
Monthly BTC resistance
During the month of September, BTC decreased slightly. The difference between opening and closing prices was a decrease of $3,400.
Despite the drop, technical indicators are not yet bearish. The RSI is still above 50 and the MACD is positive. However, both are showing a considerable loss of momentum.
In addition to this, the bearish candlestick was contained in the body of the previous bullish candle and the Supertrend line is bullish.
Therefore, while there is some weakness developing, the monthly trend is still bullish.
BTC approaches resistance
On Sept 30, BTC created a bullish candlestick and moved towards the $44,000 resistance area. The same area had previously acted as support throughout August and the beginning of September. Reclaiming it would be a major bullish development.
Yesterday, the MACD also created a higher momentum bar (green icon), a sign that the momentum is potentially swinging towards the bullish side. However, the indicator is still negative and the RSI is below 50.
The closest support area is found at $38,000.
The six-hour chart shows that BTC is trading inside a descending parallel channel. After bouncing at its midline and 0.5 Fib retracement support level (green circle), it has begun an upward movement towards the resistance line of the channel.
A breakout could take it towards $46,300 (the 0.5 Fib retracement resistance level (white)). It could potentially go to the $47,850 level. This is the 0.618 Fib retracement and a horizontal resistance area.
BTC wave count
The most likely wave count suggests that the decrease which began on Sept 7 was a completed A-B-C corrective structure (orange). The drop gave waves A:C a near 1:1 ratio.
However, the ongoing bounce (highlighted) does not look like the beginning of a new impulse. Therefore, it’s likely that BTC is mired in a complex corrective structure, and is currently in the X wave (black).
The resistance area that has the most Fib confluences is found at $46,350. This is the 0.5 Fib retracement level of the entire upward movement and would give the short-term waves A:C a 1:1 ratio.
After this, BTC could begin another downward move.
For BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.
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